Kenya Homegrown Terror Front; Potent Threat to National Security

Event Summary:

  • Sunday, June 14th 2015- KDF foiled an attack on an army base, kills 11 Al Shabaab militants, among them two top commanders of the 2014 Mpeketoni terror attacks
  • Monday, June 15th 2015- KDF parades 11 decomposing bodies of killed militants in Lamu County for public viewing
  • Monday, June 15th 2015- 7 Al Shabaab militants killed in the Dodori National Reserve, Lamu

Analysis on Homegrown Terror

According to the projections made by the AMISOM and the Somalia Prime Minister, the Harakat Al Shabaab Al Mujahideen has a small timeline before they are completely eradicated.

The militia has steadily lost control of all major towns and is currently under control of a very small region which the AMISOM forces are zeroing in.

Among the killed militias, majority were Kenyans. Luqman Osman Issa aka Shirwa who is Kenyan- Somali origin was a top Al Shabaab commander in coast region. He was also brother to Issa Osman Issa the mastermind of the 2002 Kikambala terror attack in Mombasa.

That has raised the looming problem of homegrown terror outfits in Kenya. The Al Shabaab militants have tapped into the Kenyan Muslim youth recruiting them and using them to conduct attacks in the country.

Intelligence reports indicate that Kenya radicalized youths and sympathizers are believed to support the terror group by providing logistical and terrain advice to the group before commencing on their attacks.

Domestic terrorism is being carried out especially by radicalized youths in Kenya trying to be relevant to the Al Qaeda affiliated group that has now resulted to crude and desperate ways to survive and remain relevant.

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Forecast:

  • Deradicalization programs put up the Kenyan government are expected to assimilate the recruited youth back into the society cutting the terrorism recruit supply for the militia
  • The war against terrorism is taking all angles and the recent parade of dead bodies is psychological warfare that will in the turn discourage youths from joining the militia
  • The joint effort of Kenya and British Intelligence in tracking Thomas Evans shows the global commitment of fighting terror that will see its eradication
  • The downfall of the Al Shabaab terror outfit is projected to shun other global terror outfits from finding haven in the East African Region.

Al Hijra and al Muhajiroun factions playing a significant role of youth radicalization drive in East Africa. Kenya Intelligence Service warns of increased homegrown terrorism in Coastal regions and North Eastern Kenya becoming a threat to national security.

 

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