Security Red Alert In Kenya, Opportunities Identified by Terrorists and Enemy OperativesNovember 19 | Posted by David James | Geopolitik, Intelligence News Tags: Global Security Reports, Security Consulting, Terror Threat
The geo-strategic and geopolitical value of Kenya poses significant military-economic threats to foreign powers like Britain and the United States, two countries often fond of micro-managing the country politik.
When Kenya defense forces in late October defeated Al-Shabaab militants in Southern Somalia besides capturing the strategic port city of Kismayu, military and intelligence experts were quick to accept the fact Kenya geopolitical muscle was higher.
American and British intelligence and military strategists may have felt humbled by the events in Somalia where a modestly equipped and financially capable second ‘World’ African country had done what US and the NATO besides AMISOM had failed to do in decades.
Throughout President Kibaki’s regime Kenya has isolated these global powers from its trade and government procurement to cushion itself from being economically and politically shortchanged.
Kenya has rapidly developed in the past ten years with infrastructure, trade,and technology being key drivers of increased income per capita, making more Kenyan’s economically capable while the national economy grew better.
Nairobi has not only paid the United Nations all its debts but also scored significantly well in democracy, governance, and socioeconomically making it the envy of the East and Central African region and a hot spot for investors.
Unfortunately, the killing of 50 police officers, and the gunning down of 3 military officers on Monday 19th November 2012 unravels a mystery of foreign plots to destabilize Kenya through a policy of a poor internal security service.
Killing of police officers en-masse creates a public policy that even the civillians are better trained and informed to handle security operations.
Killing of soldiers creates the public policy that even though they destroyed Al-Shabaab, the soldiers were not super-humans who can solve every security problem in Kenya, hence, they are expendable too.
The strategy deployed in Kenya is to make the civilian identify the police force and the military, besides the intelligence service, as incapable,unavailable, and unreliable, hence, the civilian has to take collective responsibility to secure him and his community against security threats.
Geopolitical Implications and Ramifications of Foreign Power Play
Kenya has conducted audits on the region and arbitrated peace treaties in Sudan, Somalia, and now Central Africa, a process which has exposed the rot in international relations to its intelligence system thus attracting enemies.
With the relatively good economy, military muscle, and a geopolitical strength that is coupled well by its Geo-strategic value to East and Central Africa, Kenya’s new status of the regional superpower dwarfs efforts of superpowers like America in DR Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda making the British and Americans insignificant to the region.
Nairobi has been busy working on modalities to increase trade relations across east and central Africa while the Americans and the British have been working hard to re-establish their authority in regional geopolitics.
This conflict of interest allows players including other actors to identify opportunities in the Circe spell to deploy strategies that will destabilize Kenya and ruin the strategic gains it has made in the past decade.
Opportunities Identified by Terrorists and Enemy Operatives
This is a terror alert and a warning to economic and national security intelligence service that the republic of Kenya faces a critical security threat through a strategy that aims at weakening the internal security to an extent that citizens might take up the role of police.
In media coverage of social activities in Kenya, young men have been identified wearing police uniform look-a-likes, while many social gatherings including sports fares have players parading and saluting like the police.
In Eastleigh, christian youths and Muslim youths have started a religious war stoked by terrorist attacks with the non-Muslim residents insisting the Somali’s are behind the terrorism.
Failure by the internal security apparatus to intercept the violence that left 2 dead further discredits the internal security system and the intelligence service as being incapable and unavailable to mitigate threats on the national security.
The killing of over 50 police officers in Suguta valley at Baragoi created a public policy of a tactless police force and a completely un-informed intelligence service.
The constant re-emergence of Mungiki conflict in Kirinyaga district, the only area Mungiki was defeated and shunned is a strategy deployed to raise the Mungiki ante wherein if it succeeds in manifesting and occupying Kirinyaga, it will have conquered the Kikuyu community and will significantly call the shots through intimidation in the coming presidential election.
In Kisumu, emergence of gangs that maraud and engage in criminal activity including murder signals an escalation of proxy political violence to intimidate and cause violence in the area.
Eastleigh violence poses the most significant threat so far whereby, if the violence escalates, the terrorist operatives will use the violence as camouflage to move equipment and resources closer to key targets identified in previous intelligence reports including CBD sky-crappers.
Ethnic politics and social media based ethnic violence has been confirmed by Strategic Intelligence service with the embers of this online violence about to explode into real violence during the election time.
With the insecurity problem becoming nascent, we advice that the Eastleigh area be under watch since terrorist cells operating from there have been activated.
Improvised explosive devices maybe under assembly to be deployed in the coming two weeks as the terrorists critically analyze security lapses for a window of opportunity to launch the terrorist attack on a major installation, a major building in the capital, a hotel, transport facility including a bus headed to Mombasa, Garissa, or Western Kenya, or even a major church.
Politically, we advice intelligence services to critically identify characters and association of all presidential aspirants both locally and internationally to cross-examine their intents, activities and connections so as to identify how deployment of strategies aimed at using the insecurity problem to their advantage.