Fall of Kismayu, Somalia in August,July 25 | Posted by David Goldman | Geopolitik, Intelligence News, Military Intelligence
The strategic movement of KDF-AMISOM troops alongside TFG and Ras Kamboni brigade towards Kismayo will start early August, intelligence shows.
While dates and battle strategy remain classified data and cannot whatsoever be discussed, the fall of Kismayo, the seaport stronghold of Al-Qaeda Al-Shabaab will fall with less effort.
Intelligence shows intense war-generals from Uganda and Burundi flying in and out Kenya’s after long hour meetings at the Kenya defense headquarters Kenya Defense Forces defense college at Karen, Nairobi.
Planning and approval of the Kismayo battle strategy is priority, Kenya Defense Forces have the equipment required for the aerial and sea assault that will be backed by a ground force backed by the air cavalry (50-ACB), intelligence confirms.
Kismayo will fall anytime towards the end of August.
Kenya Defense Forces will be the key players in the theater with their air-force and navy being the primary resources in the initial stages of the Kismayo attack.
Successful destruction of key positions and strategic enemy assets such as missile launcher positions, battery positions, anti-aircraft positions, and mounted machine-gun positions will allow the second phase of the operation which will involve commando’s drawn from the Kenya Defense Forces Rangers, tank divisions to overrun positions by the militants inside the city, besides aerial attacks by gunship helicopters with capability of ground attack.
However, these scenarios might not play out due to a weakened Al-Shabaab army which is suffering from low morale, lack of funds, and weapons to escalate its purpose.
Intelligence gathered by Strategic Intelligence on their profile in Kismayo shows they are weak and degraded but can still fight, however, the leadership there wants the militants to tactically withdraw and melt into the civilian society then re-surge afterwards.
Al-Shabaab may opt to melt away and offer no resistance to the powerful AMISOM onslaught. They want to preserve themselves for the future insurgency operations.
Such a scenario would be dangerous since insurgency often has ramifications including loss of peacekeepers besides loss of strategic gains made during the initial operations.