Strategic Intelligence News

Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) an amorphous group made up of indigenous Coastal communities of Kenya. A critical analysis on 50-diferent, news, research, and intelligence reports about the illegal group, Strategic Intelligence sheds light on the very dangerous intentions of the secessionist outfit MRC.

Recent events including loss of media attention, de-criminalization of the outfit, speedy growth in sympathizer base, (socio-political sympathy), cessation ideologies and shift in focus on its core agitation strategies, are indicative of well-advised leadership.

MRC has increased its activities, particularly the activism and legal grandiose to secede from Kenya between October 2011 and 2012. This signals a realignment and shift in focus due to a re-energized and well-funded outfit. In our analysis, we identify critical events, political strategies, and geopolitics of East and Central Africa.

Analysis

Political Strategies and Support

Most militant activities are based on political ideals shared by a specific political class and the leadership of the militants. Here, a symbiotic relationship exists between the militant leadership and the political class for a common cause. The political class acts as a catalyst and source of supplies (money, freedom, and operation environment), while the militants provides ground for political survival and supremacy of the political class with an eventuality of significant fiscal and socio-economic gains at the consummation of plans for both. MRC structures are not without these features.

Political Connections are evident in the group’s secessionist ideology. MRC has denounced violence and opted activism as a means of gaining ground and listening ears. This strategy is the same one employed by Mungiki since 2011. Mungiki is an amorphous group whose previous militant activities resemble MRC’s previous militancy activities and wing that was based in the Mulungunipa forest.

Both MRC and Mungiki stopped criminal-like activities in mid-2011. Mungiki has shifted focus on militant activity to make money to political activism with their leadership being political mercenaries. Objectively, Mungiki has capacity to cause disquiet and even socio-political violence in both Central Kenya and Rift Valley areas of Kenya. MRC has the same bare-knuckled capacity to destabilize the coastal region through socio-political means.

The political influence-relations are multi-faceted with broader associations spanning to other countries being possible. MRC’s value to the political class in Kenya is pegged on the vote-volume strategy besides facilitating the foreign power success in various types of activities that will consummate through the rogue politician. MRC’s insistence to have the Coastal people indulge in elections boycott is political. By seeking a limit to the number of votes casted to equate/tilt balance of volume (votes) to their favor, the politicians can easily gain higher number of votes counted. The pro- politician vote rich areas providing millions of votes with the poor voter turn-out in Central and Rift-Valley and Coast due to socio-political problems orchestrated by Mungiki and MRC decreasing rival capacity to gunner significant vote volume.

Geostrategic importance of the coastal area to the Kenya

The geostrategic importance of the coastal area to the Kenyan economy dangerously inspires the MRC cause and further helps the political connection find this route as most effective weapon against the GOK. Unfortunately, the coastal region has an Inferior socio-economic position to rationalize their reason for cessation. This reduced efficiency has an option to threaten GOK further. Through the evolution of the MRC, their non-violent action may ends up giving way to armed resistance, a very dangerous possibility/eventuality.

Intelligence shows MRC assumes a non-violent movement guided by religious ethics while at the same time suffers from ideological differences across the educated class and coastal middle class. The educated coastal people do not agree with the MRC ideology nor support its cause.

An assessment of the coastal people (specifically MRC original communities) “Economic viability” to the geostrategic important coastal area is poor. The geostrategic importance of the Kenyan coast is insulted by the unharnessed capacity to contribute to the economy. Much of the MRC population does not have the ability to generate even taxable output to the economy denting their capacity and credibility.

Likoni, Kisauni, and Kaloleni is the epicenter of MRC while it’s area’s of effective of operations, effective administration and membership are Mombasa, Msambweni, Vanga,Kinango, Ukunda, Kwale, Malindi, Kaloleni, Chonyi, Tana River, Tarasaa, Garsen, Gamba, Kipini, Taita-Taveta, Takaungu, and Mariakani. All these areas are along the Mombasa-Nairobi highway, a critical transport corridor. In the event of militancy activity, this route would be compromised closing the East and Central Africa trading route besides crushing the economies of Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and Southern Sudan.

Geopolitics of Military and Economic Supremacy.

Regional and international economic and military partners with Kenya know the great geo-political significance of Mombasa. This is a strategic commercial and military nerve centre and transport corridor to various East and Central Africa countries including Uganda, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, and Burundi. Mombasa connects Nairobi and Kenya as a whole to its economic resources. Compromising Mombasa would have catastrophic economic and geopolitical ramifications to Kenya and the region as a whole.

Our earlier assessment of political nexus spanning outside Kenya takes its other shape here. NSIS has pointed out foreign support to MRC. Our analysis matrix identifies a key European nation, and two African countries as supporters of MRC.
Kenya’s current military and economic muscle has outgrown basic control by western powers and African influence. To destabilize Kenya and bring down the economy besides piling socio-political pressure on the administration would significantly reduce this regional economic-military capacity. Sudan and Uganda are likely losers in Kenya new economic ties with Ethiopia, Somalia, and Southern Sudan.

By destabilizing the coastal region through militant activities, Nairobi would be completely weakened. This would provide ample ground for Uganda and Sudan to squeeze concessions out of Nairobi and save their geopolitical significance. The scenario economic intelligence agents deployed by foreign players want to structure is a Nairobi that has no value to the East and Central Africa. The Ethiopia-Somalia-Southern Sudan transport corridor fails to materialize, the Mombasa-Nairobi transport corridor crashes cutting off Nairobi to revenues gained from tax levied on Central and East African transporters, importers, and exporters, cut-off import and exports to Kenya, and most dangerous, kill the tourism industry which depends heavily on the Coastal region further crippling Nairobi to a shadow of itself.

Much of the MRC legal junk is borrowed from the British who were part of the agreements made decades ago and now serving as a panacea for this cessation problem. To achieve this objective, foreign players have Kenyan political class sympathy. This union joins the dots on our matrix co-joining the foreign players, the Kenyan politicians, and the MRC.