Intelligence on Mudavadi Factor; Why Musalia Has a Chance on the ThroneJuly 8 | Posted by David Goldman | Intelligence News
Musalia Mudavadi, a rather non-combative, less worried, and confident politician seems to be well placed in the political jigsaw Kenya. An analysis of political trends as Kenya, the regional economic and military heavyweight nears another election, shows Mudavadi has gained significant ground in record time besides many free favors.
Mudavadi’s may have been very well advised about his presidential bid, a reason why he has all the best laid plans besides incredible chances of winning the election, but only if, he has enough trump cards for the game of the throne.
In March 2012, Strategic Intelligence hinted Mudavadi’s political clout would emanate from a strong community background that would shake ODM besides provide a very good opportunity for Mudavadi’s favor in politics.
The emergence of Musalia Mudavadi complicated the chances of both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga. This man, Mudavadi, has a natural factor on the electorate, a factor that possesses the worst political ramifications for Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga’s bid.
Mudavadi, according to our analysis, has favor in North Eastern areas such as Meru and Mbeere. He also has significant (pocket support) in Central Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta’s turf. Mudavadi commands great support in the Western region and a chunk of Rift Valley area. In Nairobi where a specific class resides, Mudavadi represents another type of Kibaki, a man with few enemies and less concerned about the past rather more focused on the future; This is what Nairobi want’s, progress, not retrogressive and same old political conflicts that bring drawbacks to socio-economics.
These are magical numbers, all which tip the outcome of an election. Mudavadi has the right people in his circle, particularly clean and well placed politicians. For example, Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed, the the Mandera Central Constituency, who is a respected MP/Legislator by the business class and private sector.
Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed was a pillar in the constitution making process besides being the man who was impartially involved in seeking a common ground on the document. Every politician in the current parliament loves to associate with him for his wisdom and impartiality.
Kikuyu community MP’s, are part of Mudavadi’s invar brass. Mudavadi commands respect in Central’s pro-Odinga pockets who insist, they will rather vote Mudavadi than Odinga since Mudavadi made an entry to the game of thrones. This is a game changer, business class and a minority number of the working class in Central Kenya would vote Odinga instead of Kenyatta, but with Mudavadi as an option, would rather vote him instead of Odinga.
Sober politik and touch of old and new makes Mudavadi find favor within the electorate, which is yet to know him well. Many respondents agree Mudavadi is sober and could be less adverse as a principal administrator of the country. Corporate executives and business class members insist they want someone who can maintain the Kibaki legacy without being adverse in the past of Kenya. Kenya needs to continue in this economic trajectory currently guided by Kibaki, Odinga and Kenyatta represent politics which would bring down the motion and state of this trajectory.
‘Odinga would be a adverse’. A country finance manager for a global private security firms insists. We have evidence of his utterances. When you lead, management of structures existing requires intellect to manage. Odinga might undo so many pasts and bring socio-economic discomfort.’
Kenyatta is also not a very predictable leader, his record shows he relies on too many losers and might be losing so much money to his fanatics in the name of strategy which would be visible in his presidency. Uhuru’s problem is not his tribal background or Raila Odinga, rather a clique of his adviser. Some are good others are very bad for him. President Kibaki finds Uhuru favorable, but lacking wisdom and the correct group of advisers to succeed him. In fact, Kibaki’s choice of successor is a person with integrity, capacity to lead, and steer clear of old politics and settling scores, unless Kenyatta re-brands, Kibaki won’t endorse him for such reasons as above.
The middle class that is determined to shape the country’s political-economic future observe these weaknesses and strengths. Mudavid, to this class, has nothing like adverse socio-political feelings and relationships. His relationships with Odinga, Kibaki, Ruto, and Uhuru Kenyatta have no bumps let alone dark hours. As such, Mudavadi will do nothing adverse as a president to get back to these leaders and subsequently create tribal-political problems that shake the economy. This endears him to the business and middle class.
These factors are also very specific; in fact, they make state house find Mudavadi favorable as a Kibaki successor. With a good political background, good support from his family (Luhya-Western area) and more Middle and Business Class Kenyan’s, Mudavadi needs only to seek a great strategy to enter deeply into the hearts and minds of Kenyan’s besides consistently analyzing risks and mitigating them effectively.