Terror Threat in Kenya, Possible Shift in Al-Shabaab Target and Style PrincipalMay 16 | Posted by David Goldman | Crime, Intelligence News
Kenya will most likely suffer a unique type of terror attack in the coming days as current style and plan used by Al-Shabaab yields less effective results.
Al-Shabaab terror operatives have consistently used grenades in their efforts dispatching hit-and-run bandits who make their run with getaway cars.
This method is risky and quite easy to track to the terrorists and their contacts. Al-Shabaab is aware of this fact hence working hard to deploy a new strategy.
To most intelligence analysts analyzing a potential threat before an attack takes place is like filling a numbers puzzle, but, though difficult, the shifts in the game play is foreseen.
Strategic Intelligence has kept on warning of terror attacks in Kenya and they happen in tandem with each warning, an indicator of factual analysis.
Terrorists are creative and we take jihadists like Al-Shabaab to bear such credentials hence the ease with which they have deployed grenade attacks across Kenya and avoided using suicide style bearing heavy explosives to inflict substantial damage.
The objective of terror is to inflict fear and uncertainty of security, this is the current doctrine Al-Shabaab is using against Kenyans, ‘scaring the Kenyans by convincing them they are vulnerable anytime and anywhere’.
However, there has been too much European jihadists pro Al-Shabaab coming to Kenya meaning there has been a shift in style to deploy terror in Kenya.
Al-Shabaab maybe short of dedicated suicide bombers owing to the slack security in Nairobi and Kenya in general.
Poor surveillance and response time by police compromises security besides, the reputation of the Kenya police is always at all time low keeping vital intelligence away from the police as civilians fear victimization.
These two factors quantify Al-Shabaabs lack of clout and dedicated matrys beside a lack of capacity to deploy major terror attacks.
However, it is this notion that Al-Shabaab might have been slack, unable, and less opportunistic at the security problem in Kenya that requires a critical check.
Al-Shabaab may have thought this out very well and has been outsourcing foreign expertise to both develop innovative-out-of-the box terror tactics and equipment particularly explosives and style.
IED’s such as IEDs developed in computer printer ink cartridges, underwear, and shoe bombs might be deployed in Nairobi and Mombasa.
These types of explosives can inflict significant damage and cause many deaths since they cannot be suspected when being smuggled into buildings or gatherings.
Targets will change as well, with busy eating-places such as coffee shops, French Fries cafes, and rallies including political and religious being included as choice targets.