Uhuru Likely to Win Kenyan ElectionMay 10 | Posted by David Goldman | Intelligence News
Deputy Prime Minister of Kenya Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta is likely to win the 2012 general election if his campaign and strategy can assail the contests rough.
While Uhuru has so far taken a policy of acquiescence, avoiding too much politik and media limelight, the effects of his recent efforts are paying off with many intelligence reports showing he can win the election.
NGO Reports and intelligence findings put Uhuru at good stead with most of the most populous communities in the country finding him favorable for the presidency.
However many factors come up against this possibility particularly the ICC and scandals riding in the current regime which he has served. While Uhuru is not part of the scandals, the regime he serves is part of them.
Mr Kenyatta has attempted to prevail upon popular notion that the Kenyan politik is merely a tribal melee and that without Odinga in the thick of it, it could not be such a sour grape. This policy is a great weapon indeed.
The Kibaki regime so far remains the most successful and obviously the best since independence in terms of economic development, human rights, education, and health care provision. The trickledown effects of these gains have manifested in almost every corner of the country.
Human rights groups and lobbies besides a free press can do audits and report freely their findings. Health care and economic empowerment efforts have been force.
Uhuru has been busy establishing networks and serious backers while still maintaining close association with influential former legislators whose losses at the ballot were not significant. This means the following of such ex-MPs was and is still very significant.
The popularity rankings provided by pollsters also rebuilds Kenyatta’s high chances of winning against Mr Odinga who intelligence and political analyst’s projects as populist and lacking a leadership character for a number of reasons.
Uhuru has a leadership character that if shaped to specifics desired, can create a great public policy about his capacity in leadership. Focus on policymaking processes with regard to his presidency and the dire need to have him keep socio-economic development consistent has not featured in his efforts. This is worrying since public policy requires this essential facet of leadership.
Uhuru Kenyatta’s public policy simply requires agenda setting, option-formulation, and implementation besides the time-line for implementation. He should ensure this is not misconstrued for a party manifesto.
Rift Valley and Central Kenya regions besides Nairobi promise significant gains to his bid. However, events that have played recently and intelligence show there are still pockets of anti-Kenyatta in Kikuyu community especially the working youth class. In Rift Valley, women interviewed by NGO’s are more convinced Uhuru is their best bet.
The political landscape is gradually taking a new shape in the country and strategic interests of political wheel dealers are shifting. Disintegration of political alliances and lack of a clear agenda by most contenders further gives Kenyatta a competitive edge.
His record in administrative work as a minister throughout the Kibaki regime draws out his capacity as an administrator eager to provide effective socio-economic incentives that can empower the Kenyan society. His term as an individual has been clear of scandals and controversies, all that taint and derail a good campaign.
Without a scandal, with charisma and great character, a good development record, Mr Kenyatta stands towering against the odds yet there are many missing links that curtail the possibility of his win.