Strategic Intelligence News

Kenya defense forces have killed more than a thousand Al-Shabaab troops, captured strategic towns formerly held by the militants, trained and positioned Somali government forces in liberated areas. Al-Shabaab is weak, on the run, and confused.

It lacks the basic requirements such as leadership and money to make inroads in its quest to remain in power. South Somalia recently was Al-Shabaabs stronghold and economic nerve center.

US and Ethiopian forces failed miserably besides losing their best soldiers and equipment to the Al-Shabaab. Kenya defense forces, a untested army as US and countries across the world pointed out, routed the militants, one town after another using the most unique strategy ever used to counter an army run by terrorists.

Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni was quoted referring the KDF as a career army that could perish in Somalia. Ethiopian security experts laughed off Kenya defense forces attempt on Somalia. Indeed many security, military and intelligence experts and groups were sure KDF would languish in death in South Somalia, the hometown of the Hawiye-run Al-Shabaab.

The Indian Ocean Newsletter, a reputed intelligence and geopolitical publication even exaggerated KDF was bogged down besides projecting they could not sustain the war.

Other sections of intelligence and military issues media explained how KDF had no exit strategy besides hinting rehatting KDF to AMISOM, a very weak outfit, was their exit strategy due to the expensive costs of running the war.

Today,KDF has captured both economic, infrastructural, and technical capability centers of Al-Shabaab besides destroying the militants training and bomb assembly facilities.

However, the loss KDF has suffered is the ultimate denial to storm Kismayu and liberate Somalia. While the ramifications of storming the port town would be catastrophic due to civilian deaths, Kismayu is the only strategic objective that could have baptized the Kenya defense forces as ‘The Most Powerful Army in the Region.’

This was an opportunity that even the National Intelligence Security Service failed to analyze and make use of. It could have given Kenya an image of a regional military and geopolitical power.

Kibaki government in Nairobi lacks experts in intelligence analysis hence this is not a surprise though. Had NSIS used this idea, Kenya’s position in the global politik would have significantly soared up.

Investors would have rushed to the country for it would have a repute and capability to defend itself and its neighbors from aggression and economic sabotage with brute  force and success.

President Kibaki would earn his moment as the most powerful president, the man who commands the most powerful and capable army in the region, but that wont be.

2500 KDF officers will be joining AMISOM under a Ugandan commander which insults KDF high integrity and track record of military leadership achievements.

AMISOM Generals have failed to gain ground outside Mogadishu, they have lost troops in hundreds due to poor planning, routine syndrome, poorly trained soldiers, and incompetence in strategy execution.

KDF cannot perform under such leadership and should be prepared to suffer heavy losses just like the rest of these armies. Any indication of high risks besides regular heavy causalities will quickly demoralize KDF troops under AMISOM hence give the international chance to look KDF down the nose.

By joining AMISOM, KDF becomes part of a failed administration and discredits its position as a super army, either they work on their own or jointly with AMISOM forces.

African armies have not defended let alone won a war, but KDF was just days away from making the most significant difference in Kenya, African, and global history, defeat and completely wipe out an Al-Qaeda backed Islamist army and liberate the Somali people.

US and its allies including Britain and France did nothing but work hard to ensure KDF will not get the glory, rather must disappear from the global spotlight as soon as possible through arrangements such as AMISOM.

There will be no glory for KDF after AMISOM.